After some unconvincing last-minute brinkmanship, Iran and its six world-power negotiating partners decided on July 18th to extend the deadline for an agreement by four months. They now have until November 20th to secure a deal to curb Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. The new deadline marks a year from when the countries first signed a Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) to try and find a permanent solution.
In the meantime, the provisions of the six-month interim deal that began on January 20th will remain in place with a few minor tweaks. Iran will take a further step towards neutralising its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium by turning the uranium oxide powder it has already converted into fuel plates for a research reactor. In return, Iran will continue to get very limited relief on some secondary sanctions and another $700m a month in old oil revenue from frozen foreign bank accounts.
The decision to extend the negotiations makes sense for both sides and was widely anticipated. For the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) the interim deal has increased, if only by a bit, the time it would take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear device. Some progress has also been made on a plan to de-fang the Arak heavy-water reactor that could provide Iran with an alternative plutonium path to a bomb, by adapting it to a design that produces far less plutonium. Another issue that could soon be resolved involves the Fordow enrichment facility, buried deep beneath a mountain and believed by many to be invulnerable to attack. This facility could now be converted into a fairly innocuous R&D centre. Combined with the enhanced inspection regime that Iran has largely co-operated with, these are potential gains worth holding on to, at least for now.
